December, 2006
Robert Gates, in his testimony at the Senate Confirmation hearings, said that the US is not winning the war in Iraq and warned that if that country is not stabilized in the next year or two it could lead to a regional conflagration.
My, my. Is this news or was Washington still listening to its own propaganda as late as that morning?
Of course we are not winning the war. We have been in second position since the militants, in all their forms, decided to come to life. A foreign power cannot simply walk into another country and take over. Why did we walk into Iraq? Everyone remembers: The administration talked about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and made it the rationale for invasion. When we could not find any big bombs, we developed a new reason for spending lives and bucks in Iraq. We decided to believe that we were needed and that the Iraqis wanted us to liberate them. Some Iraqis believe we are in their country for the long haul. Let us see this clearly and begin to recognize we are not wanted in Iraq.
Early on we did some strange things
How did we get into the mess we are faced with today? Early on we did some strange things. We ripped out the bureaucracy and destroyed the military and the law enforcement agencies. We forgot about the tribes and tribal issues as well as the religious aspects of Iraqi life. We looked at solutions through Western eyes. We helped put together a government and we monitored a widely touted election. Now that freely elected government seems stuck and powerless. In the meantime, we are trying to build an Iraqi military force and revitalize the law enforcement units. But the police are constantly being murdered on the streets and in their police barracks. At the same time we also take casualties and continue to spend an inordinate mountain of dollars.
Robert Gates is right---we are not winning across the board. But when the US military comes up against the terrorists in a combat situation our military always win. Reason: Superior firepower. So our ground troops are winners and the American public must be assured of this fact. But there is much more at work then just a few fire fights between the US military and a handful of terrorists.
There is an ongoing civil war in Iraq
For example, we are afraid to say there is a civil war going on in Iraq. Wake up America. There is an ongoing civil war in Iraq.
Also, I am beginning to believe that the conflagration in the Middle East that Gates mentioned will take place no matter what we do in Iraq. The terrorists, the marginalized and the poor masses who occupy every nation of the Middle East sense our weaknesses. They smell blood and they understand the terrorist use of leverage and the principles of asymmetrical warfare. They know how to come at us and make us uncomfortable and tentative.
The underdog terrorist gathers any available weapons and makes do. He steals weapons and ammunition and stores them at strategic points. His arsenal grows as he becomes a populist force and the locals see him as hero and martyr while offering their support. Often times, as the terrorist group gathers strength, it also draws to itself support from sympathetic governments in the region. Such external support can be a major problem.
… he can be expected to have excellent intelligence
If the underdog terrorist is fighting within his homeland he can be expected to have excellent intelligence—his eyes and ears are in every neighborhood and in every back alley. He searches only for targets that are vulnerable and weak. He never attacks US forces with a protracted fight in mind---he disengages quickly and disappears. He manufactures home made mines and bombs and remotely detonates them when a convoy is passing and he quietly blends into the crowd at the detonation site. He attacks soft targets such as pipelines, fuel storage areas, ammunition dumps, motor pools and other valuable concentrations of assets. He looks for the biggest bang for the buck—it might include the slaughter of women and children---anything of media value in order to gain international attention. All of this is un-nerving and that is why it is called ‘Terrorism’.
When this emboldened terrorist comes to America, he again searches for the soft target. Dams, power grids, water purification plants, airplanes, airports, ship harbors, heavily populated venues, national monuments, churches, the World Trade Center and other asymmetrical targets are on the list to hit. Reconnaissance missions are assigned to evaluate these targets.
The soft target approach used at home is the same approach used abroad and this makes us nervous, uncomfortable and tentative. Finally, to add to our apprehension, the terrorist has every advantage; he chooses the time of attack, the place and the method.
We have evidenced an inability to adequately understand the political and social dynamics that would confront us in Iraq
Indeed, one of the consequences of having committed our missteps in Iraq is that we have demonstrated to our enemies, be they in Iraq or elsewhere, that we are incapable of prevailing when confronted by an urban, guerrilla-style counterinsurgency. This is not the sort of encouragement the United States wants to offer potential adversaries. Worse still, we have evidenced an inability to adequately understand the political and social dynamics that would confront us in Iraq.
We need some brilliance now
Yes, we are in trouble and it is going to require some clear thinking, planning and, understanding of what our actions will bring to us, as every action has a countering reaction.
Robert Gates is a brilliant man. We need some brilliance now and we need some powerful positive leadership now. I am for you Dr. Gates and, yes, it is time for some major changes.
© 2006 Richard Wilmot
